(WAEMU COMMISSION) – Encouraging macroeconomic performance in 2024, similar to that seen in 2022 and 2023. Strong growth amid slowing inflation. Despite the security and socio-political crisis in some member states, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the situation in the Middle East, economic activity within the Union remained buoyant, with a growth rate of 6.3% in 2024 compared to 5.2% in 2023. This strength is linked to the positive performance of all sectors, particularly the primary and secondary sectors, driven by a good agricultural season and dynamic extractive activities. The average annual inflation rate in the Union slowed to 3.5% in 2024 from 3.7% in 2023, in line with easing pressures on food and energy prices.
Improvement in the public finances of Member States
Efforts to mobilize revenue have had a positive impact on domestic resources. However, tensions remain high. The overall budget deficit stood at 5.0% of GDP in 2024, compared with 6.6% in 2023. This deficit is the result of a larger increase in public revenues (+9.3%) than in expenditures (+1.9%). This resulted in a tax burden of 14.3%, up from 14.1% in 2023. The debt ratio stood at 64.8% in 2024, compared with 63.8% in 2023, representing a slight increase of 1 percentage point.
Significant improvement in external accounts
The current account deficit narrowed by 3.4 percentage points compared to 2023, to 5.9% of GDP, following the decline in the goods account deficit. This reduction is the result of an increase in exports (+13.6%) coupled with a decline in imports (-1.2%).
Monetary situation characterized by an increase in the rate of growth of the money supply…
It stood at 8.9% at the end of December 2024, following a 3.5% increase in 2023. This increase is driven by the consolidation of net foreign assets and domestic receivables.
Outlook for 2025 within the Union: consolidation of performance
Economic activity is expected to remain buoyant, with a projected growth rate of 6.7% compared to 6.3% in 2024. This growth is being driven in particular by the strength of the extractive industries. The inflation rate could be around 3.0% in 2025, due to the expected increase in production in the 2024/2025 agricultural season and the continued decline in prices for imported food and energy products. The overall budget deficit is expected to represent 3.7% of GDP, in line with the increase in revenue mobilization (+14.2%) compared to the increase in expenditure (+6.6%). The tax burden is expected to be 15.0%. Fiscal consolidation is expected to be effective in five member states by December 31, 2025. The debt ratio is expected to be 63.0% compared to 64.8% in 2024, below the 70% ceiling in six member states. In terms of foreign trade, the current account deficit is expected to be 3.5% of GDP in 2025 compared to 5.9% a year earlier, due to a favorable change in the balance of goods. Intra-WAEMU trade would account for just over 16.0% of the Union’s total trade. The money supply would increase by 12.7%, driven by domestic claims (+10.5%), and the expected consolidation would stand at 2,623.4 billion in net foreign assets.
Strengthening the pillars of integration for a peaceful and prosperous community space
In order to take into account the aspirations of the population in the integration process, the Union has adopted a forward-looking Vision for WAEMU 2040, which embodies the collective ambition of its eight member states to embark on a new stage in their shared history over the next 20 years. Entitled “WAEMU, a sustainably integrated, peaceful, and prosperous economic and monetary area, open to Africa, with a consolidated strategic position in the world,” this vision is based on five essential pillars:
WAEMU, a secure area with strong institutions;
WAEMU, a sustainable and prosperous economic, monetary, and financial area;
WAEMU, a catalyst for the completion of integration in West Africa;
WAEMU, an area with a thriving population;
WAEMU, a Union consolidating its strategic position on the regional and international stages.
To operationalize the vision and consolidate the gains made from the implementation of the Priority Action Framework for the period 2021-2025, CAP 2025, a Strategic Plan of the WAEMU Commission, called “IMPACT 2030,” has been developed. Its main objective is to improve the competitiveness of the Union’s economies and strengthen the pillars of regional integration. This plan is built around 13 ecosystems selected for their ability to drive structural transformation in the economies of member states: import substitution capacity, the valorization of local raw materials, and synergies with other priority sectors. All of these ecosystems can be grouped into three distinct families: the agro-industrial sector, the light and extractive industries sector, and value-added services.
IMPACT 2030 is divided into five areas:
Development of production ecosystems;
Development of economic infrastructure to support competitiveness;
Promotion of human development and citizenship;
Strengthening the foundations of integration;
Modernization of institutional governance.
By Abdoulaye DIOP, President of the WAEMU Commission
